“The entire world economy rests on the consumer; if he ever stops spending money he doesn’t have on things he doesn’t need – we’re done for.” – Bill Bonner, Author
“You’re thinking of this place all wrong. As if I had the money back in a safe. The money’s not here. Your money’s in Joe’s house… right next to yours. And in the Kennedy house, and Mrs. Macklin’s house, and a hundred others…” – George Bailey, “It’s a Wonderful Life”
“The whole reason that our capitalist system works the way it does is because there are cycles, and the cycles self-correct.” – Seth Klarman, Baupost Group
“We’ve grown dependent on American consumers as the world’s spenders of last resort. They’ve kept Europe out of recession, allowed China to industrialize, and prevented global deflation.” – Evan Davis, British economist
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Fourth Quarter 2023
Tapped Out?
“The entire world economy rests on the consumer; if he ever stops spending money he doesn’t have on things he doesn’t need – we’re done for.” – Bill Bonner, Author
Third Quarter 2023
Mixed Signals
“Economics is extremely useful as a form of employment for economists” – John Kenneth Galbraith, Economist
Second Quarter 2023
Next Stop—Pottersville!
“You’re thinking of this place all wrong. As if I had the money back in a safe. The money’s not here. Your money’s in Joe’s house… right next to yours. And in the Kennedy house, and Mrs. Macklin’s house, and a hundred others…” – George Bailey, “It’s a Wonderful Life”
First Quarter 2023
Return to Trend?
“The whole reason that our capitalist system works the way it does is because there are cycles, and the cycles self-correct.” – Seth Klarman, Baupost Group
Fourth Quarter 2022
Shifting of Energy
“Containment of inflation is fundamental to a restoration of sound economic growth.” – Treasury Secretary George William Miller, 1979
Third Quarter 2022
The U.S. Consumer: Bearing the Weight
“We’ve grown dependent on American consumers as the world’s spenders of last resort. They’ve kept Europe out of recession, allowed China to industrialize, and prevented global deflation.” – Evan Davis, British economist
Second Quarter 2022
Pushed & Pulled by Inflation
“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.” – Vladimir Ilyich Lenin
First Quarter 2022
Known Unknowns
“There are known knowns… there are known unknowns… but there are also unknown unknowns.” – Donald Rumsfeld, former Secretary of Defense
Fourth Quarter 2021
Supply Chain Blues
“The amateurs discuss tactics. The professionals discuss logistics.” – Napoleon Bonaparte
Third Quarter 2021
The Consumer Strikes Back: What Surging Demand Means for the Economy and for Stocks
After a year of lockdown, U.S. households have begun to spend savings that accumulated during the pandemic.